Sunday Morning Charts

Four charts to look at from Akamai's browser metrics platform. First, global desktop browsers. There're a couple of pretty obvious inferences to make from the weekly pattern here: IE is used a lot at work, and people do more mobile browsing at the weekends. Also, the two main mobile browsers are now getting on for a quarter of total use. 

The thing that needs more thought, though, is this set: mobile browsing across all networks, on cellular only and on wifi only. 

All networks

All networks

Cellular networks

Cellular networks

Wifi networks

Wifi networks

There are a bunch of moving parts here. First (to get it out of the way) Akamai data is not perfect and mostly excludes China. But even so, there are probably 3x more Android than iOS devices on earth. So what's going on? 

On cellular, Android is perhaps 25-50% bigger than iOS (depending on whether you include Opera Mini and 'Others' in Android, which is an argument in itself). But on Wifi iOS is much bigger. There are a bunch of possible reasons for that  - it's easier to connect to wifi, iOS users are more likely to have wifi, or both. But the interesting thing is that the wifi traffic is big enough to make iOS take the lead in the first chart as well. Akamai doesn't break this out, but it's a pretty obvious piece of algebra to do the calculation. 

Finally, why would Chrome be such a small share of Android browsing? A flaw in the data, or is no-one using it?

Social messaging consolidation

In the last couple of years there's been an explosion of social messaging apps, of which WhatsApp was obviously the breakout hit. But one could easily suggest that in buying WhatsApp Facebook is just playing 'Whack a mole', with dozens of other bubbling up: last summer I went through Google Play and found 50 such apps with over 1m downloads.

The data all of these give is highly variable, though - downloads and user aren't the same thing and though many apps give user figures occasionally, 'users' often means 'anyone who ever downloaded our app' (which WhatsApp has complained about, making a point of giving MAUs) and many don't even tell you that. So it's interesting to look at Google Trends for some of the biggest names that have been floating around. (And yes, Google trends is indicative but far from authoritative). 

First, compare WhatsApp, where we know the numbers, with a few of the bigger names. 

(Comparing WhatsApp with Blackberry and BBM is also instructive.)

Now, keep Viber for scale (it reported 100m MAUs when Rakuten bought it in February) and add a couple of the names that have floated around as regional winners. 

Now compare Nimbuzz, an Indian player, with WhatsApp in India. 

Now, a couple of the US hits. 

Small globally, but big in the USA. 

The big gap in this, of course, is that we really can't use it to look at the really big contenders - Wechat is still mostly in China where Google Trends is useless, Kakao in Korea has the same problem, and Line is too generic a search term to tell us anything much. 

I've argued elsewhere that the lock-ins Facebook enjoyed on the desktop are much weaker on mobile - that it's much easier to switch between services and to use several at once. But at the same time, it does appear that WhatsApp has much greater scale than the alternatives globally (unless there's a huge new app I've just not heard of yet, which, frankly, is entirely possible). Still, there's a lot of regional variation: WhatsApp is certainly not dominant in the USA, China, South Korea or Japan. And (having said you can't use Google Trends to look at Line), Indonesia shows a fascinating mix. 

As I suggested here, perhaps part of the future is messaging within other apps, rather than lots of dedicated messaging apps. 

700m smartphones & tablets in China

Umeng's 2013 report has just come out, and it's full of fascinating data. (Umeng is an app analytics firm, much like Flurry, and has its code in a very large share of apps in use in China.)

Striking data points: 

  • There were 700m active smartphones and tablets in China at the end of 2013, and this almost doubled from 380m in Q1
  • High-end phones are a big market: 27% of the total active base, and 80% of those are iPhones
  • 55% of the top 1000 apps include links to the major Chinese social platforms
  • 20% of the top games use licensed third-party IP
  • App use and game use varies by how expense the phone is (unsurprising, but some good data on the details)
  • The Android market remains fragmented: Samsung has 24% (much lower than globally), Xiaomi is in 4th place and 'other' is a third of the market
  • And finally, pretty much every app category has at least doubled its active users in the year. 

Note: A few people have suggested that the implied number of iPhones seems high as a percentage of total iPhone sales. (Umeng hasn't given a smartphone number to apply 80% of 27% to, but other estimates are about 500m = 108m). However, if you take imports of second-hand iPhones into account the percentage looks much more reasonable.  

China scale

A pretty simple but striking juxtaposition: the size of the Chinese mobile internet market versus the US smartphone market. There are over 1.2bn mobile subscriptions in China, and though China is still a much less prosperous place than the USA, even the top half - the half that's using the mobile internet and buying 3G phones (almost exclusively smartphones at this stage) - is more than double the size of the US smartphone base. 

(Strictly speaking, I should put the Chinese smartphone install base on this too, but that data is rather less solid, and the point remains.)

Tablets, PCs and Office

The whole ‘tablets and PCs’ discussion today reminds me a great deal of similar conversations we used to have a decade ago about ‘laptop or desktop’. 

That is, someone would ask a vaguely technical friend whether they should buy a laptop or a desktop. And the answer would be “well, how much money do you have and what do you want to do with it?” Laptops were portable but had smaller screens, less power and were more expensive. Which trade-off depended on how you planned to use it. 

Over time that break point shifted: laptops got less expensive and much more powerful - today there are very few tasks that need the power a desktop can give, but the screen size point remains (though of course external screens are cheap). And so laptops grew to roughly half the PC market by volume. The desktop market didn’t go away - mostly for screen size or cost reasons (if you’re outfitting an office of 10k people, none of whom take their work out of the office, why buy laptops?)

Much the same analysis applies to tablets today - "what are you going to do with it?" Are you going to do sophisticated, complex, multi-app computing? Lots of keyboard work and detailed manipulation that a mouse is better for? Apps that are only ON a PC? Then get one (whether desktop or laptop). Mostly web, email, games, video, social networks and you’re walking around all the time? A tablet might suit you very well. You probably have a PC too - there’s very little actual substitution right now, but there is an impact on the PC replacement cycle (as well  as expanding the pie massively, especially in emerging markets, which is another conversation). 

And of course this break point will move as well, just as the laptop/desktop break point did - tablets will get faster and more sophisticated and capable of substituting more tasks. And so we should expect to see tablets taking a growing chunk out of the PC market.

(The other way to slice this is that the PC market is split very roughly half and half between consumer and corporate - corporate boxes will remain longer than consumer PCs, but there’ll be erosion in both.)

Another very important lens to look at this through, though, is Microsoft Office. Office is extremely good (tautologically) at the things it’s good at - there is no credible alternative to Excel for making large financial models and no credible alternative to Powerpoint for making 150-page pitch books, for example. Free alternatives nibble around the edges, and specialised use cases such as statistics have been carved out long ago, but the real threats come from use cases where you shouldn’t really be using Office at all. 

This ‘shouldn’t use’ comes from both above and below. Someone said to me on Twitter (I now can’t find who) that their consulting business spent half its time telling people to stop using Excel and use a database and the other half telling people to to stop using a database and use Excel. That is, Excel is used as a business information system in a huge number of companies. It’s a powerful and flexible IDE on its own terms, and this is sometimes a good use, but it often isn’t, and specialized SAAS services will probably carve out an increasing number of these use cases. When I worked at Orange there was a multi-megabyte Excel file on the network drive called, I believe, ‘sum_of_x.xls’ containing complex macros and every major operating metric for the entire company, there for anyone who needed to analyze high-level data. That should probably not, really, be in Excel today. 

The same applies to Powerpoint - it’s a very good tool for that 150 slide deck, but what if you’re making a 10-slide deck each week that consists entirely of operating metrics pulled out of a back-end system, manipulated in Excel and pasted into slides, plus commentary, that are emailed to 25 people? Shouldn’t that change from a 2 hour task to a SAAS dashboard and a 30-second task? And would it still need a mouse and keyboard?

(This point also bears on the future of email itself, but that's another topic.)

This carving out comes from below, too. One of these is the Google Docs story, about there can be much debate, but to me the interesting challenge is embodied by this screenshot - the ‘new file’ menu in Excel. 

Screen Shot 2014-02-27 at 3.02.23 AM.png

How many of these are actually smartphone or tablet apps providing custom lists or databases? Or Mint (another SAAS)? How many presentation templates might also be something like Storehouse?

This is, of course, all about unbundling and specialisation. Office apps (generically) are very broad and deep and general purpose. Critics tend to focus on the depth and talk about how few people need all those features, but miss the breadth - of how many things a general purpose ‘table’ app or ‘make pages’ app can be used for (including what look to technical people like misuses - the classic example being the person who pastes a screenshot into a Word document and emails that). I'd suggest that a meaningful proportion of Excel use doesn't involve formulas, for example, just lists and tables and page layout - IDE as DTP. New routes to market and new interaction models provide new ways to challenge that hegemonic interaction model, just as smartphones allow the unbundling of Facebook's interaction models - SAAS changes Office and so do app stores. 

This brings us back to the mouse and keyboard that you ‘need for real work’, as the phrase goes. Yes, you really do need them to make a financial model. And you need them to make an operating metrics summary - in Excel and Powerpoint. But is that, really, what you need to be doing to achieve the underlying business purpose? Very few people's job is literally 'make Excel files'. And what if you spend the other 90% of your time on the road meeting clients and replying to emails? Do you need a laptop, or a tablet? Do you need a tablet as well as a smartphone? Or a laptop, or phablet? Or both?

Well, what do you want do with it? it’s all just glass - the only real different is the size and the input mechanism that suits your task.