Apple sales of old phones and tablets: guidance of 9m?

"Over 80% of the revenue that we will see in the December quarter will come from products that we’ve just introduced in the last six weeks" - Tim Cook, Apple September quarter conference call

Hmm. Apple guidance is $52bn revenue (my estimate is a little higher). 20% of that is $10.4bn. 

On my rather rough estimates: 

  • iTunes, software and 'other' will be a bit under $5bn in the December quarter. 
  • The Mac Pro and some of the Macbook lineup has not been refreshed: but the big-sellers have been: assume (rather heroically) that 25% of Mac sales are of 'old' products: $2bn

That adds up to $7bn or so, leaving $3.5-4bn of sales from product that isn't Mac, iTunes, software or accessories, and isn't new. In other words, the iPad 2 and the iPhones 4 and 4S. 

What's the mix? No idea. But apply a BOE (Back-Of-Envelope) ASP estimate of $450, and that gets to, say, 7.5-9m units, out of total sales of somewhere north (very north) of 60m units. 

In other words, Apple expects the discounted, old units to be between 10 and 15% of the total. Not much. 

This is, of course, an exercise in speculation. The Mac mix is only one variable: the other is Tim Cook's choice of words.  At one point he said 'new products' - at another he said 'new or repriced', though both times he was talking in the context of a lower gross margin, which would not normally apply to repriced older models - unless of course their cost structure has been dramatically reworked. 

But none the less, one possible interpretation of these numbers would be that Apple expects to sell more iPad 2s than anyone else, except maybe Amazon, will sell tablets.