The state of mobile, Q2 2013

This chart is an attempt to capture the key dynamics in the global mobile business. It shows unit volume, revenue and ASP (average selling price) for the key components of the tablet and mobile phone industries. There's a pretty clear picture:

  • Samsung dominates by volume and leads on revenue
  • 'Other' Android is getting very big (this includes Lenovo etc, of course)
  • Apple continues to sell at much higher prices than anyone else
  • The iPad continues to lead on revenue but probably not on volume (and if it does, it won't be for much longer)

Note that unless explicitly stated otherwise, these are for all handset sales, not just 'smartphones'. Tablets are shown separately. 

Screen Shot 2013-08-01 at 14.13.47.png

This data contains a fair few assumptions, given the somewhat imperfect nature of disclosure in the industry today:

  • Apple, Nokia and Blackberry disclose all three numbers
  • HTC, Motorola, Sony and LG give handset revenue
  • LG and Sony give smartphone units
  • Samsung gives revenue for a unit that includes handsets, tablets and PCs, but these are pretty small
  • Google gives enough data to estimate total quarterly Android activations and Android tablet activations
  • However, perhaps 80% of Android devices sold in China have no Google services, do not activate with Google and are not included in activation numbers - I've estimated these separately, both for phones and tablets
  • Chinese tablets are - tough - to estimate: they make up half of the 'other tablets' entry and there's a pretty big margin of error on that one 
  • Amazon says nothing at all about the Kindle Fire
  • Windows tablet sales are too small to move the series on this chart
  • Most of the unit data is 'shipped' rather than 'sold', but except for egregious flops this doesn't actually make much difference on this scale, and the Android activations numbers do of course relate to sales.  
  • Etcetera
Benedict Evans